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2 December 2011 Last updated at 11:00 GMT

Profile: Belgium's Elio Di Rupo

By Patrick Jackson BBC News

"My life is a fairy tale," Elio Di Rupo said in 2008

Elio Di Rupo, the man tipped to end Belgium's seemingly intractable government crisis, has been grappling with challenges all his life.

On one level, this son of Italian immigrants is living the Belgian dream, rising from poverty to play a crucial, unifying role in his country's political future.

On another, he is very definitely a Walloon, as Belgium's French-speakers are known, who struggles to speak Dutch but is passionate in his determination to unite Walloons and Flemings alike.

Another view is that he is simply the man of the moment, the latest in a line of "formateurs" - as government brokers in Belgium are known - who happened to be there when the eurozone economic crisis concentrated Belgian minds.

What seems clear, however, is that, at 60, Elio Di Rupo is very much his own man, as distinctive as his trademark red bow ties.

The picture that emerges from a freshly published biography, largely based on interviews he gave to Belgian journalist Francis Van de Woestyne, is of a fighter, unafraid to take on challenges both in his personal and public life.

'Fairy-tale' life

"My life is a fairy tale," he told Van de Woestyne in an interview in 2008. "You could not make it up."

He was born on 18 July 1951 in the small town of Morlanwelz, in Belgium's French-speaking Wallonia region, to parents who had emigrated from a village in Abruzzo, San Valentino, in search of work.

"I cannot say I had an unhappy childhood"

At the age of one, he lost his father in a car crash. Struggling to raise seven children, his illiterate mother gave some of them up to a nearby orphanage.

"Even so, I cannot say I had an unhappy childhood," Mr Di Rupo recalled. "With nothing, she gave us happiness. On celebration days, she would buy sandwiches that she cut in two."

He remembered how his Roman Catholic mother would light a candle in church every time he sat an exam, and would say "May God bless you" each time he left her.

His graduation day as a chemist - he studied at the University of Mons-Hainaut and at Leeds in the UK - was, to her, "as good as a wedding".

"When she died, I felt an infinite, unspeakable sadness."

Embarking on adult life, Mr Di Rupo left behind his Catholic upbringing, and described himself in the 2008 interview as an "atheist, rationalist and free mason".

Already as a student in Mons, he had become active in the Socialist Party and his political career took off in the city, where he rose to become an MP and mayor.

One of his achievements in Mons was to set up an international festival of love films in 1984, an annual February event held, appropriately enough, around St Valentine's Day.

Falsely accused

Mr Di Rupo, a homosexual, found his own love life suddenly under scrutiny in 1996 when he was falsely accused of having had sex with under-age males.

According to Van de Woestyne, Mr Di Rupo admits that he might have killed himself had he not been totally vindicated in the affair.

Speaking to the author of Elio Di Rupo, A Life, A Vision (French: Elio Di Rupo. Une vie, une vision), he recalled being pursued down the street by a media pack and how one journalist had exclaimed "Yet they say you're a homosexual!"

"I turned around and shot back: 'Yes. So what?' I will never forget that moment... For several seconds there was silence... People were so surprised by my reply they stopped jostling each other. It was a sincere, truthful reply."

His career did not appear to suffer. Three years later, Mr Di Rupo was leader of the Socialist Party and, shortly afterwards, became regional prime minister of Wallonia.

Rolf Falter, who worked as a speechwriter and adviser to former Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt and now writes the Crisis in Belgium blog, believes Mr Di Rupo faces an altogether different challenge in Brussels.

"Being the chief minister of a regional government is just a pastime compared with the hellish job of being prime minister of two different communities brought together," he told the BBC News website.

"You have to have very strong personal skills to bridge all rivalries. Di Rupo surely has the skills to be in command, otherwise he would not have succeeded in the most difficult negotiation ever.

"But much will depend on his empathy for Flemish public opinion, which is extremely volatile."

Challenge in Flanders

Mr Di Rupo, Falter believes, does not yet enjoy cross-community appeal though he is credited in Flanders with having solved the government crisis at last.

Protesters dressed as Elio Di Rupo have been warning against austerity plans

"It is quite obviously his success," he says.

"It is he who smoked out the Flemish nationalists and then extremely slowly, and through a very minimalist approach, brought the negotiators day by day closer to each other.

"It is a very Italian approach to politics, without bravado and visionary moments, but he succeeded and who can prove that someone else would have achieved this?

"The markets did not play a significant role, except in the final week."

Van de Woestyne, also speaking to BBC News, says that 35 years in politics have demonstrated Mr Di Rupo's "patience, charisma and good leadership qualities".

"He takes a lot of time to listen to everyone and thus has many strategies for finding compromises, and he has good contacts across the political spectrum."

Where Mr Di Rupo may struggle is in convincing Flemish opinion that he, the leader of the French-speaking Socialists for the last 12 years, can enact vital economic reforms, Falter notes.

"These doubts, that the man who has been holding the brakes so long should now become the guy who turns the steering wheel, have not been dissipated though he and his party have engaged timidly in the reform process in a way you would not have expected from them, say, half a year ago."

Lost in translation

Among the Socialist leader's weaknesses are perhaps a lack of creativity and a tendency to consult lengthily before taking a decision, Van de Woestyne adds.

And a major failing in the eyes of many Flemings is his poor command of Dutch - the language of 60% of Belgians.

He may have learnt English while studying in England, but his mistakes in Dutch have been mocked.

At a news conference, for instance, he used the Dutch word "drinken" (English: drinking) instead of "dringend" (urgent) when talking to reporters about economic austerity.

Flemish separatist leader Bart De Wever, who was excluded from the coalition talks, remarked: "My Nigerian cleaning lady, who has been in Belgium for two years, speaks better Dutch than Elio."

Mr Di Rupo, quoted by AFP news agency, has promised to master his country's other language and deliver his responses in parliament "in Dutch, with mistakes".

In any case, his success in the government negotiations is what matters now to the Belgian public, Van de Woestyne suggests.

"Belgians are very grateful for his efforts to resolve the government crisis, which has lasted too, too long," he says.

"If he is not quite regarded as the country's saviour, he is being seen as the man who ended the crisis."

According to Falter: "He may not bring the country alive again but he might succeed in keeping it afloat for a few years, which might be enough to make it survive through a difficult period."

Economia - LA STAMPA DEL 3 DICEMBRE 2011

03/12/2011 - GLI SCENARI

Con il crac dell'euro stipendi dimezzati fallimenti a catena

La nuova lira crollerebbe, inflazione e tassi alle stelle
Le svalutazioni dei nostri beni arriverebbero al 60%

di Tonia Mastrobuoni

Avete un mutuo, una macchina, un frigo o un prestito da ripagare? Avete uno stipendio medio, insomma non proprio da nababbi? Siete abituati a viaggiare da un Paese all’altro senza contare i soldi nel portafoglio? Siete abituati a lamentarvi se il latte o il pane aumentano di qualche centesimo? Se a una o più domande avrete risposto di sì, dovrete fare il tifo perché l’Italia non esca mai dall’euro. I buontemponi che in queste settimane si divertono a caldeggiare un ritorno alla lira non spiegano mai gli scenari concreti di un’uscita dalla moneta unica per le vostre tasche. E per l’Italia. Eccoli.

Fallimento dei debiti
Premessa: non esiste una clausola di uscita dall’euro scritta nei Trattati europei. Si può solo uscire dall’Unione europea. Ma poniamo il caso che l’Italia riesca davvero a fare una «secessione» dall’Eurozona. Il primo dilemma sarebbe decidere se convertire o meno tutti i debiti attualmente denominati in euro, compreso quello pubblico da oltre 1.900 miliardi, nella nuova moneta. Schiere di avvocati delle banche o delle finanziarie che detengono titoli di Stato e crediti con l’Italia sarebbero coi fucili puntati, pronti a mettere in dubbio qualsiasi ipotesi di cambio. Meglio, allora, lasciarli in euro?

Anzitutto la lira crollerebbe
A quel punto si aprirebbe un altro scenario terrificante: la lira subirebbe sicuramente una svalutazione molto pesante rispetto all’euro. Un rapporto della banca d’affari Ubs che si esercita proprio sull’ipotesi di uscita dall’Eurozona di un Paese come l’Italia, ritiene probabile, in questo caso, un crollo della lira del 60 per cento. Vuol dire che gli stipendi e le pensioni varrebbero improvvisamenteil 60 per cento in meno. A fine mese, per pagare la solita rata del muto o del frigo bisognerebbe mettere cioè molti più soldi. Facile immaginare che per milioni di persone che hanno pochi margini di risparmio significherebbe perdere case, frigo, automobili o finire pignorati dalle banche. Lo Stato, infine, sarebbe costretto a dichiarare fallimento su un debito più che raddoppiato da un giorno all’altro. In altre parole, come ricordano molti italiani rimasti «bruciati» dai tango bond argentini, non ripagherebbe una parte del debito. Infine, per evitare tracolli e oscillazioni troppo violente della moneta, è probabile anche che si arrivi a un blocco dei capitali. Vuol dire, ad esempio, che per andare all’estero si avranno i soldi contati.

Inflazione e interessi alle stelle
Il fallimento del debito pubblico farebbe schizzare gli interessi alle stelle facendoci velocemente dimenticare questi 13 anni di moneta unica con tassi ai minimi. Per riconquistare la fiducia dei mercati l’onere sui prestiti di ogni tipo balzerebbe, nello scenario Ubs meno pessimista, di ben 7 punti rispetto al livello attuale. Le banche rischierebbero così di paralizzarsi o addirittura di fallire - anche a causa del «bank running», delle corse a ritirare i soldi dai conti e dai depositi che è uno scenario tipico, in questi casi. Allora, chiosa la banca d’affari svizzera, si potrebbe arrivare al totale congelamento del credito. Anche l’inflazione schizzerebbe a livelli inauditi, nel caso di uscita dell’euro e sarebbe aggravata dalla particolare struttura della nostra bilancia commerciale, cioè della differenza che c’è tra entrate e uscite. Siccome in Italia siamo costretti a importare molto e per di più beni insostituibili come l’energia, i prezzi si infiammerebbero ancora di più. Un altro elemento che si mangerebbe pensioni e salari.

L’apnea delle banche
Un dilemma simile a quello per il debito si aprirebbe per i conti o i depositi in euro: convertirli o no? Prima che si arrivi a sciogliere questo dilemma è molto probabile che gli istituti di credito vengano presi d’assalto facendo collassare il sistema. Ma in ogni caso anche qui la mannaia sarebbe comunque la pesante svalutazione rispetto all’euro. Complessivamente, una scelta così drastica come quella di abbandonare l’euro costerebbe a ogni cittadino italiano, secondo Ubs, inizialmente tra 9.500-11.500 euro all’anno. Passata l’emergenza, il costo rimarrebbe comunque alto, tra 3-4000 euro all’anno.

14 November 2011 Last updated at 16:21 GMT

By Laurence Knight Business reporter, BBC News

 Europe has placed its hopes in the new technocratic Prime Minister Mario Monti to do the necessary

Italy has moved to centre stage in the eurozone debt crisis.

While Greece generated a lot of noise, it is now seen as a sideshow.

Greece's debt problems are already widely known and the immediate consequences of a Greek default largely anticipated.

Moreover, the size of the Greek economy is small enough that the direct damage, if Greece stopped paying its debts, should be quite manageable for the eurozone.

Instead, the big fear is "contagion" - that a Greek default could trigger a financial catastrophe for other, much bigger economies - in particular Italy and Spain.

That is why European leaders announced in October a significant expansion of its bailout fund, the European Financial and Stability Facility (EFSF).

And it seems it is Italy that is now seen as the lead candidate for that contagion among Europe's big economies and the main possible beneficiary of the enhanced bailout fund.

Why is that?

Prudent Italy?

According to Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel, "Italy has great economic strength, but Italy does also have a very high level of debt and that has to be reduced in a credible way in the years ahead."

As with Greece, she and other eurozone leaders believe the solution is more government austerity - spending cuts and tax rises - by Rome.

However, some economists might disagree with her assessment.

The Italian government's debt, at 118% of GDP (annual economic output) is certainly high, even by European standards.

But dig a little deeper, and the picture changes.

Unlike their counterparts in Spain or the Irish Republic, ordinary Italians have not run up huge mortgages, and generally have very little debt.

That means that according to the Bank of International Settlements Italy as a country - not just a government - is not actually terribly indebted compared with other big economies such as France, Canada or the UK.

Continue reading the main story

Moreover, the large debts of the Italian government are nothing new. It has got by just fine with a debt ratio over 100% of its GDP ever since 1991.

The main reason is because - unlike Greece - Italy is actually quite financially prudent.

The government spends less on providing public services and benefits to its people than it earns in taxes, and has been doing so every year since 1992, except for the recession year of 2009.

Indeed, the only reason Italy continues to borrow at all is to meet the principal and interest payments on its existing debts.

Grim outlook

So why is Italy in trouble now?

The reason is because its economy is so weak.

Italy is plagued by poor regulation, vested business interests, an ageing population, and weak investment, all of which have conspired to limit the country's ability to increase production.

The country has averaged an abysmal 0.75% annual economic growth rate over the past 15 years.

That is much lower than the rate of interest it pays on its debts.

And this creates a risk that the government's debtload could grow more quickly than the Italian economy's capacity to support it.

In the past, this risk has not materialised, thanks to Italy's relatively high inflation rate, which has steadily pushed up the government's tax revenues.

But now the outlook is much more grim.

Self-fulfilling prophecy

Like other southern European economies, Italian wage levels rose too quickly during the good years, and left Italy uncompetitive versus Germany and other northern economies within the eurozone.

 

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How does the eurozone bailout plan, the European Financial Stability Facility, actually work?

That lack of competitiveness is likely to mean many years of even weaker growth and low inflation, as Italian workers find their pay is frozen, or even cut, until they regain a price advantage over German workers.

But lower growth and inflation suddenly make the Italian government's debt load look much less sustainable.

Further government spending cuts are likely to hurt the economy even more, and - as Greece is discovering - may not even do much to improve the government's borrowing needs if they lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.

That scary outlook has freaked out markets, and lenders are demanding a much higher interest rate from Italy in order to lend it the new money it needs to repay its old debts as they come due.

To borrow money for 10 years, Italy now has to pay an interest rate of 6.7%. Germany, by contrast, must pay only 1.8%. Spain - Europe's other big, troubled economy - must pay a record 6.1%.

But of course this higher cost of borrowing makes Italy's debts look even less sustainable.

That means the market's loss of confidence in Italy could well end up becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If nobody will lend to Italy, then Italy cannot repay its debts. And if Italy cannot repay its debts, then nobody will lend to it.

And if markets do panic and switch their money out of Italian debt into "safe" German debt, Italy would need an enormous bailout that would dwarf the original 440bn-euro EFSF, agreed in July.

Much of this fund had already been earmarked to support Greek government spending.

Insurance

The new deal is designed to prevent this scenario.

European leaders have agreed to expand the EFSF to, in effect, insure lending to countries such as Italy up to a value of about 1tn euros - more than double what was available before.

The hope is that this will also reduce the cost of Italy's borrowing and so make it easier for the country to pay back its debts without drawing on the facility's insurance.

But the deal comes with caveats - Italy is expected to implement a new round of austerity measures to ensure its debts stay under control.

It is not clear that the coalition government - now led by the technocratic former EU Commissioner Mario Monti - is able to implement further cuts.

Furthermore, if the economy then fails to grow - as happened in Greece - and Italy looks even less able to pay back its debts, investors may ask who will ultimately pay for insuring them.

October's deal did not go into details on how the expansion of the lending facility would ultimately be funded.

And even if it does get funded, it may still not be enough to rescue both Italy and Spain.

Il 2011 è Anno Internazionale della Chimica, proclamato dall'ONU.

Avere pregiudizi è umano anche se gli errori ne sono spesso alla base. Eppure la Chimica e le sue moltissime applicazioni aiutano a vivere con dignità, a patto che si assuma un comportamento individuale e collettivo responsabile e consapevole.

In questi giorni è in corso a Berlino un importantissimo evento dedicato appunto all'Industria chimica e alla Chimica, come scienza.

Non esitate a capirne l'importanza con questo video che ovviamente va ascoltato ad altissimo volume per tentare di rimuovere proprio quei pregiudizi che troppo spesso ostacolano il pensiero e le vibrazioni...di ogni genere.